Analysts note that the market is being influenced simultaneously by cyclical and structural factors. These include changes in cattle markets in North America and Brazil, as well as China’s policy aimed at “rebalancing” its pork sector. Taken together, these factors are expected to constrain beef and pork production, while aquaculture and poultry continue to expand.
According to Éva Gocsik, Global Strategist for Animal Protein at RaboResearch, although feed prices are likely to remain relatively stable, the sector will face pressure from tighter protein supplies, rising volatility, higher trade costs, and ongoing animal disease challenges. All of this will negatively affect business margins. Processors may also encounter difficulties related to capacity utilization and trade disruptions caused by tariffs and protectionist measures.
Economic conditions and consumer behavior are also evolving. Against the backdrop of a projected slowdown in global GDP growth, consumers are expected to become increasingly price-sensitive, potentially reshaping protein consumption patterns. Rabobank also points to the growing use of GLP-1 medications, which influence dietary behavior. This trend could lead to both switching between different protein sources and increased demand for protein-rich foods.
Despite multiple challenges, global trade in animal protein has shown relative resilience. Companies are actively adapting to changing conditions, including through front-loading shipments—such as Brazilian beef exports to the United States amid tariff uncertainty. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, and shifting policies will continue to shape global trade flows, although potential new trade agreements could provide partial support to the market.
Rabobank places particular emphasis on animal diseases as a key risk factor. African swine fever, avian influenza, and emerging threats such as New World screwworm and bluetongue continue to disrupt production, trade, and productivity. These pressures are driving greater investment in biosecurity and the search for new approaches to risk management, although practical implementation remains complex.
Amid growing climate and nature-related risks, sustainability is becoming a central strategic issue. Regulatory momentum is pushing sustainability higher on the agenda for animal protein companies. Technologies such as artificial intelligence could help manage operational risks and support environmental goals, but investment levels remain limited. Nevertheless, analysts stress that even targeted integration of technology into existing processes could deliver meaningful gains in a sector that has traditionally been slow to adopt innovation.
Regional outlooks from Rabobank point to diverging trends. In North America, pork production growth will be constrained by disease pressure and limited sow herd expansion, while broiler production is set to increase and beef output to decline. In Brazil, exports of beef, pork, and poultry could reach new records, supported by lower feed costs. In Southeast Asia, herd rebuilding is expected to drive pork production growth, though disease risks remain high, while poultry production is set for strong expansion. In Europe, pork production growth will slow, poultry production is expected to rebound despite avian flu risks, and beef production will stabilize under tight supply conditions.
Rabobank concludes that in 2026, companies in the animal protein sector will need to pursue greater diversification, seek consolidation opportunities, and adapt to shifting consumer preferences. Strategic integration of technology and sustainability measures will be crucial to managing risks and capturing new opportunities.
PigUA.info, based on materials from thepigsite.com