The annual World Mega Producer list which Genesus does in collaboration with Swineweb is nearing completion. The ultimate list of swine producers over 100,000 sows will once again show the ebb and flow of the world’s pork industry. Stay tuned.
USDA Projections
Last week we pointed out U.S. pork production was running the first four months of 2024 0.1% higher than a year ago. We also pointed out USDA was projection a 2.8% year over year annual increase. We estimated to get to 2.8% we would need to average 4% higher year over year for the balance of 2024.
We wondered a week ago if USDA would adjust their numbers. Last week they did go from annual production of 28105 million lbs. to 28079 million lbs. Though lower still almost 2.8% year over year increase in pork production. Year to date as of last week up 0.1%. Does anyone believe who actually owned hogs that lost on average $30 per head for 18 months really believe that we increased production that will lead to a 4% year over year increase over the next 8 months. Maybe only government officials gazing from there cubicles across the Potomac (that’s if they have a window).
The real unfortunate part of this delusional projection of 4% more for the balance of 2024 is what it does to suppress pork demand and prices.
Prices
Lean Hog Prices are 91¢ lb. breakeven is about 88¢ lb. (F to F). A $6.00 per head profit? We are not back filling the hole created by the 18 months of huge losses. Sow slaughter is running higher than a year ago. At levels of continued liquidation in our opinion.
Carcass Price
The U.S. Pork Carcass cut-out last Friday close was 99.77¢ lb. Choice Beef carcass cut-out $2.94 a lb. Give or take three times higher than Pork. Sad testament to lack of pork demand of consumers to pay anything close to what they will pay for Beef.
The cuts with the most marbling (Taste) continue to lead in price and obvious demand. The cuts (Loins-Hams) that in our industry wisdom decided to obviously make like Chicken (The Other White Meat) and subsequently contributed to taste destruction languish in value. Move Loins and Hams up 15¢ lb. it would raise hog prices a minimum $10 per head. Only good business to produce what consumers are ready to pay more for. Pork that tastes better.
Meat?
Florida banned Lab Grown Meat. Last week Alabama did also. In Some European countries plant-based products are not allowed to call their products meat.
Britannica definition of meat, “the flesh or other edible parts of animals (usually domesticated cattle, swine, and sheep) used for food, including not only the muscles and fat but also the tendons and ligaments.”
On the weekend saw a commercial of Impossible Foods. In the commercial a ranting middle-aged white guy extols the merits of Impossible plant based “Meat”.
Question, if plant-based products are not by definition meat, would it not be wise for our National federations for cattle, pork, etc. not be fighting to stop all usage of meat that are not meat? Isn’t it false advertising? We should fight to protect our product from interlopers trying to use our product name.
China
The latest China Government data indicates the sow herd is down 3.14 million sows year over year now at 39.92 million sows (-7.3%). Pigs in inventory at the first of April 408.5 million down 5.2% from a year ago. Both numbers are a reflection of the huge financial losses that the China industry has suffered over the last 15 months.
Fewer pigs are leading to higher hog prices with prices now over 16 RMB/kg liveweight ($1.00 USD lb.). We expect prices will push to 20 RMB/kg as China hog supply drops by over 1.5 million head per week. The lower supply and high prices will pull pork from export countries.
A Positive
The lean hog price of 91¢ lb. currently is running 10¢ lb. higher than the five-year average and up 15¢ lb. over a year ago. Cash early wean pigs now around $40 a year ago $15 reflecting greater demand and you would think no more supply. We expect lean hog prices to start to run higher starting in the next couple weeks. We would not be surprised to see $1.20 plus lean hogs this summer.
