Analysts expect that both pork production and import volumes in 2026 will remain close to 2025 levels. Beginning inventories are also projected to stay stable, partly due to a decline in imports of breeding pigs.
Another contributing factor was the extremely hot summer of 2025, which may have negatively affected sow reproductive performance and piglet production. Combined with high production costs and sharply rising construction expenses, this has discouraged investment in expanding production capacity. As a result, the number of pigs sent for slaughter and overall pork output are likely to remain stable.
In 2025, domestic carcass prices in Japan remained high, reflecting strong demand and somewhat reduced supply. At the same time, price-sensitive consumers continued to choose pork as a more affordable alternative to beef.
In terms of foreign trade, pork imports in 2026 are also expected to remain at the previous year’s level. This comes despite Japan’s suspension of pork imports from Spain in November 2025 following the confirmation of African swine fever (ASF) in that country.
Japan is expected to diversify its sourcing, increasing pork imports from South American countries while continuing to rely on North American suppliers to meet domestic demand.
PigUA.info based on materials from pig333.com