USA: Production Could Reach 12.7 Million Tonnes
In the United States, which remains the world’s second-largest pork producer, production in 2026 is forecast at 12.7 million tonnes, around 1.1% higher than last year.
In June and July, the number of pigs slaughtered at federally inspected plants was less than 1% higher year on year, while pork production increased by 2% in both months.
A key factor was the increase in average dressed weight, which rose from 210 lb (95 kg) to 214 lb (97 kg) per head. This is helping to support production despite a decline in the overall hog herd.
At the same time, demand is showing signs of weakness. In July, cold stocks of pork cuts were 9.4% higher than a year earlier, while the wholesale pork carcase value fell to $101.26 per hundredweight, down almost 12% year on year.
In January–July, U.S. pork exports increased by 2.7%. Japan made a notable contribution, with shipments rising by 16.6%. Exports to Mexico were also 2.6% higher over the period, with most of the growth occurring in the first quarter.
However, competition in the Mexican market subsequently intensified from Canada and Brazil. As a result, the U.S. export forecast has been revised down to 757,000 tonnes for the third quarter and 866,000 tonnes for the fourth quarter. Full-year exports are expected to total around 3.3 million tonnes, 2.9% higher than in 2025.
Canada Could Reach Record Production
In Canada, pig slaughter through June increased by 2.1% to 10.7 million head. Growth reached 3.7% in western Canada, compared with 0.8% in the east.
Pork production increased by 2.4%, almost entirely due to higher slaughter numbers, as average carcase weight rose by only 0.3%.
Canadian pork production is forecast to increase by 2.5% in 2026 and could reach a record level. As in the United States, growth is being driven by improved productivity rather than any significant expansion of the breeding herd.
At the same time, the export situation remains mixed. Shipments since the beginning of the year were 11.4% lower than a year earlier. Declines in exports to China, South Korea and the Philippines were only partly offset by a 25% increase in shipments to the United States and a 20% rise in exports to Mexico.
Additional uncertainty comes from the future of the trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico, which currently provides for tariff-free trade in pork and live animals. The agreement remains in force for now but could be reviewed.
Mexico’s Production Forecast to Rise by 5%
Mexico’s pig sector returned to growth in the second quarter of 2026 despite regional challenges linked to porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and porcine epidemic diarrhoea.
Supported by investment and productivity gains, pork production for the full year is forecast to be 5% higher than in 2025.
The number of pigs slaughtered at federally inspected plants ahead of the summer was 12% higher year on year and reached its highest level since late 2025.
At the same time, increased domestic supply and imports are putting pressure on prices. Many producers are operating at or below production cost, while weaker consumer demand is adding further pressure to the market.
In January–May, Mexico imported 766,200 tonnes of pork, virtually unchanged from a year earlier. Shipments from the United States fell by 1.6%, while imports from Canada increased by 13.9%. Imports from Brazil declined by 7.2%.
The United States nevertheless remains by far the dominant supplier to the Mexican market, accounting for nearly 79% of total pork imports, although Canada is gradually increasing its share.
PigUA.info, based on materials from euromeatnews.com