This is highlighted in a new RaboResearch report, which forecasts heightened volatility in global trade flows and differing growth rates across key regions.
Growth in the first half, slowdown in the second
According to analysts, global pork production is expected to increase in the first half of the year, driven by higher output in major producing countries. Moderate growth is projected in the US, the EU, and China, while Brazil is expected to maintain steady positive momentum.
Chenjun Pan, Senior Animal Protein Analyst at RaboResearch, notes that growth drivers vary by region. In the US, China, the EU, and Brazil, productivity gains are playing an increasingly important role, while in China the large herd size remains an additional factor supporting output growth.
However, production may slow down or even decline in the second half of 2026. The main reasons cited are herd reductions in China and Spain. In China, producers are scaling back to rebalance the market, while in Spain decisions are influenced by ASF-related trade restrictions.
Trade: policy is reshaping flows
Global pork trade in 2025 showed uneven performance. Brazil increased exports by 12%, while the US and Canada recorded single-digit declines.
In 2026, major importers are revising their policies. Mexico is introducing import quotas for non-FTA suppliers and launching anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into US pork. China is imposing anti-dumping duties on EU pork. Japan and the Philippines continue to restrict Spanish pork imports due to ASF.
Taken together, these developments indicate that volatility in global pork trade will persist in 2026.
Herd health remains a constant risk
The epizootic situation remains a key constraint. ASF continues to spread in Vietnam and the Philippines, hindering local production recovery. In Spain, the disease has not yet affected domestic herds, but the sector faces additional pressure from stricter biosecurity and disease-control measures.
In addition, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) continues to weigh on production in the US and Mexico.
Analysts conclude that over the coming year the global pork industry will operate under high uncertainty, prioritizing efficiency and risk management rather than rapid expansion.