Prices: Lowest Since 2022
The EU’s Grade S reference pig price has been steadily falling since late June, reaching 149.24 pence/kg for the week ending November 30 — the lowest level since March 2022. In November alone, prices dropped by 5.35 pence, including a sharp 3.40-pence decline in the final week of the month.
The primary drivers are increased supply and weaker demand. The price gap between the UK and the EU average stands at 53.33 pence — a margin observed only five times since 2014, all of them in 2025. This widening spread makes EU pork more attractive to buyers on a cost basis.
Spain showed the steepest decline — minus 47 pence from the summer peak. With ASF confirmed, further downward pressure on prices across the region is expected.
Production: Growth in Spain, Poland, Germany and Italy
From January to August, EU pork production reached 14.4 million tonnes, a 3% year-on-year increase.
Key growth drivers:
• Spain — +6% (203.5 thousand tonnes)
• Poland — +5% (59.1 thousand tonnes)
• Italy — +4%
• Germany — +1%
Meanwhile, France and the Netherlands recorded a 1% decline, and Belgium fell by 2%.
EU slaughter numbers rose 1% to 148.6 million head, with Spain again leading the increase (+4%).
Exports: Overall Stable, but Major Markets Reduce Purchases
In the first nine months of 2025, EU pork exports totaled 2.9 million tonnes — up 1% year-on-year. However, among major destinations, only Vietnam, Côte d’Ivoire and the Republic of the Congo posted growth.
Declines were seen in:
• China — –2% overall and –6% for fresh/frozen pork (the lowest since 2015)
• United Kingdom — –5%
• Japan — –20% (lowest January–September figure since 2013)
• Philippines and South Korea — reduced volumes
China’s anti-dumping duties triggered a sharp drop in shipments: EU offal exports hit their lowest level since 2014.
EU Pork Imports Down
In 2025, the EU imported 99.6 thousand tonnes of pork — 3% less than last year.
Main suppliers:
• United Kingdom — 76.4 thousand tonnes
• Chile — nearly halved shipments
• Switzerland — –22%
• Norway — +19%
The decline is driven by increased domestic production and softening demand.
ASF in Spain: What Will Change?
The ASF detection in Catalonia poses a serious threat for the entire EU market. Spain is the EU’s largest pork producer and exporter, and the world’s third-largest producer. Catalonia alone accounts for 40% of national output.
Although key partners (the EU, China, the UK) have accepted regionalization, most external markets are closed. As a result:
• large volumes of Spanish pork will be redirected into the EU domestic market;
• sales will occur at heavily discounted prices;
• Spanish pork will displace products from other EU countries;
• oversupply will add further downward pressure on prices.
Other EU countries may see limited new opportunities on the global market. However, only the largest global exporters — Brazil, the United States and Canada — can meaningfully replace Spain’s volumes, because:
• Germany still lacks access to China;
• the UK does not have the supply base to expand exports significantly.
Conclusion
Falling prices, rising production and export restrictions on Spain due to ASF are creating a challenging environment for the EU pork market. In the coming months, Europe may face an oversupply of pork and intensified competition within the bloc.
Analysts warn: if ASF spreads beyond Catalonia or reaches commercial farms, the EU could face its most serious pork industry crisis in years.
PigUA.info based on ahdb.org.uk