The agreement between the EU and Mercosur countries — Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — was concluded a year ago after nearly 25 years of negotiations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was expected to travel to Brazil this week to sign the deal, but its approval remains uncertain.
To ratify the agreement, the EU must avoid the formation of a so-called blocking minority — at least four EU countries representing no less than 35% of the bloc’s population. Poland has openly opposed the deal, while France and Italy have sought to delay a vote. Italy’s position is currently seen as decisive.
“If Italy is not on board, it’s over,” said Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade. According to him, without Italy’s support the agreement has little chance of being approved.
Supporters of the deal — including Germany, Spain and the Nordic countries — argue that an agreement with Mercosur would help the EU diversify exports affected by U.S. tariffs and reduce dependence on China, particularly by improving access to strategic minerals. Opponents, however, have labelled it a “cars for cows” deal, warning that cheap agricultural imports, especially beef, could flood the EU market and severely harm European farmers.
Amid intense lobbying, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz held talks with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. At the same time, Poland’s agriculture minister urged Italy and other countries to join a blocking minority, stating that opponents of the deal “have sufficient arguments and a moral responsibility.”
Meanwhile, impatience is growing in Mercosur countries. Brazilian officials have warned that the opportunity to sign the agreement could be lost if it is not concluded soon, as the bloc is simultaneously pursuing trade deals with partners such as Japan, India and Canada.
To ease resistance from agriculture-focused EU member states, the European Commission made concessions to France in October by proposing a special safeguard mechanism. This mechanism would allow the temporary suspension of preferential access to the EU market for certain Mercosur products — including beef, poultry and sugar — if imports surge too rapidly or prices fall sharply.
The European Parliament has now gone a step further by voting to lower the thresholds that would trigger this safeguard mechanism. This would enable the EU to respond more quickly to market imbalances and better protect farmers. However, the Parliament must now negotiate a compromise with EU governments, which had previously supported less stringent conditions. Talks could begin in the coming days.
In Italy, officials acknowledge that the new safeguards improve the agreement but argue they remain insufficient. Francesco Torselli, a European lawmaker from Giorgia Meloni’s party, said the current guarantees still fall short of ensuring a level playing field for European farmers.
As a result, the Mercosur agreement has entered a decisive phase. The coming days will determine whether the European Union can overcome internal divisions and implement one of the most ambitious trade initiatives in its history, or whether the deal will once again be postponed indefinitely.
PigUA.info, based on materials from thepigsite.com