According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, pork output in October–December was the highest for a fourth quarter since 2018. Analysts attribute this trend to lower prices and regulatory guidance, which encouraged producers to market more animals for slaughter.
Rabobank noted that faster slaughtering is a typical market response during periods of price pressure. In 2025, China slaughtered 719.73 million hogs, up 2.4% compared with the previous year. Overall, annual pork production rose 4.1% to 59.38 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, the market remains under pressure due to excess capacity and weaker consumer demand. MySteel data show that the cash price for live hogs at the start of the year was 12.6 yuan/kg, compared with 15.4 yuan/kg in the same period last year.
In response to overproduction, Chinese authorities have strengthened measures to regulate the sector: major companies are being advised to reduce the number of breeding sows, keep slaughter weights at around 120 kg, and adjust credit and subsidy policies.
Despite the challenging environment, experts expect prices to begin recovering toward the end of the second quarter of 2026. However, a short-term dip is possible after the Lunar New Year, while a more noticeable rebound is forecast for late Q2 to early Q3, driven by fewer sows and lower pork production.
As of the end of December, China’s pig herd stood at 429.67 million head, up 0.5% year-on-year.