The International Grains Council published its first full set of total grains supply and demand projections for 2022/23, which are especially tentative given the conflict in the Black Sea region. Despite larger carry-in stocks, world grains supply (production plus opening stocks) is forecast to contract slightly on a comparatively steeper drop in output, placed almost 1% lower year-on-year, at 2,275m t. While consumption growth is forecast to be slower than average, end-season inventories are seen sharply down.
In 2022/23, a projected 13m t drop in total grains production includes reductions for maize (-13m), sorghum (-2m) and wheat (-1m), but with anticipated gains for barley (+2m) and oats (+2m). Despite forecasts for slower than average growth in feed and food uses, tied to potentially high prices and resulting demand rationing, world consumption is expected to edge to a new peak. At 581m t at the end of 2022/23, global stocks are projected to be 26m lower year-on-year, mainly on tightening in maize and wheat. Global trade is seen declining for a second year in a row, down 2%, to 407m t.
PigUA.info by materials latifundist.com