EU pig meat production and exports expected to decline through 2035

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© EU pigmeat market balance.

The EU's pig meat production and exports are anticipated to decline by 2035 due to stricter environmental laws, reduced export opportunities, societal criticism, and African swine fever. Projected to decrease by 0.9% annually, pigmeat production is expected to fall by almost 2 million tons compared to 2021-2023. Per capita consumption is also projected to drop by 0.7% yearly, reaching 29.7 kg in 2035, a 7% decrease from 2021-2023 levels.

 

China, the Philippines, and Vietnam's quicker production recovery may lower import demand, while the US, Australia, sub-Saharan Africa, certain Asian regions, and neighboring European countries might see increased imports. Despite a previous decade's increase, EU pigmeat exports are expected to decrease by 620,000 tons between 2021-2023 and 2035. The UK could become the primary export destination. Pigmeat imports to the EU are expected to remain low and stable. Following a 2022-2023 price spike, pigmeat prices are projected to stay elevated due to increased costs and tighter EU supply, reaching EUR 2,180/t by 2035.

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