The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has presented its initial projections for production, exports, and stocks of wheat and corn for the 2026/27 marketing year. According to the May report, global output of both crops is expected to decrease amid declining stock levels.
USDA estimates global wheat production at 819.06 million tons, nearly 25 million tons lower than the previous season. Exports are also projected to decline to 211.7 million tons, while ending stocks are expected to fall to 275.04 million tons.
In Ukraine, wheat production is forecast at 23 million tons (–1.1 million tons), while exports may increase to 13 million tons (+0.5 million tons) and stocks to 4.53 million tons. In the United States, production is expected to drop significantly to 42.49 million tons, while in the EU it is projected at 136 million tons. Meanwhile, China is showing a slight increase in production.
For corn, global production is forecast at 1.295 billion tons, down 17.3 million tons from the previous season. Exports are estimated at 206.9 million tons, and ending stocks at 277.54 million tons, also lower year-on-year.
In Ukraine, corn production is expected to reach 30 million tons (–0.9 million tons), while exports may rise to 23 million tons (+1 million tons). In the United States, the world’s leading producer, production is projected to decline to 406.29 million tons. At the same time, China is increasing corn production to 307 million tons.
Overall, USDA’s initial estimates point to a general decline in global grain supply in the new season, which may support prices, while Ukraine maintains its export potential despite a slight reduction in harvest.