According to Rabobank, conditions in the U.S. hog market were weaker than expected in the second quarter of 2026. Prices were pressured by larger hog supplies and softer-than-expected pork demand.
Favourable growing conditions and ample inventories of market-ready hogs also weighed on prices. However, the market began to stabilise gradually at the start of the third quarter.
July Slaughter Was 3% Lower
In July, weekly U.S. hog slaughter averaged 3% below the same period last year.
Part of the decline was linked to the expected reduction in hog availability following earlier disease-related losses. Planned maintenance shutdowns at processing plants during the traditionally slower period for the industry also affected slaughter volumes.
Rabobank expects slaughter to gradually increase going forward, although it is likely to remain below year-ago levels through the end of 2026.
To offset tighter hog supplies and support pork production, U.S. producers are marketing pigs at heavier slaughter weights.
Producers Are in No Rush to Expand the Sow Herd
Despite the decline in the number of market-ready hogs, U.S. producers are currently keeping the sow herd relatively stable.
Rather than increasing sow numbers, the sector is relying on productivity gains to support future supply growth.
Several factors are limiting expansion plans, including disease risks, export uncertainty and cautious consumer demand for pork.
Thus, according to Rabobank, the U.S. hog market will operate with tighter animal supplies in the second half of 2026, while heavier carcase weights and further productivity gains will help support pork production volumes.
PigUA.info, based on materials from 3tres3.com