In its Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts global pork production to decline from 120.7 million tonnes in 2026 to 119.9 million tonnes in 2027.
In China, production is forecast to fall by 2.2% to 58.4 million tonnes. USDA attributes the decline to a reduction in the pig herd, supported by government policy, and weak sector profitability.
In the EU, production is expected to decrease by 0.5% to 22 million tonnes. The sector will face pressure from abundant domestic supply in 2026 and stricter environmental requirements.
Meanwhile, US pork production could increase by 0.7% to 12.6 million tonnes, Brazilian production by 2.8% to 5.14 million tonnes, and Vietnamese production by 3.5% to 4.2 million tonnes.
Global Trade to Remain Broadly Stable
Global pork exports are forecast at 10.57 million tonnes in 2027, just 0.2% above the previous year. Higher shipments from Brazil, China, the United States and Mexico are expected to offset lower exports from the EU.
EU exports are forecast to decline by 3.3% to 2.95 million tonnes due to lower available supply and stronger competition in key markets.
The United States, by contrast, could increase exports by 0.6% to 3.22 million tonnes, while Brazil’s shipments are forecast to rise by 2.5% to 1.85 million tonnes.
USDA also identifies the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in wild boar in Spain in November 2025 as a factor affecting international trade. Japan, Malaysia and Taiwan continue to apply restrictions on Spanish pork, while China and South Korea quickly adopted the regionalisation principle, and the Philippines recognised it in May 2026.
According to USDA forecasts, global pork imports will increase by 0.9% in 2027 to 9.28 million tonnes, while apparent consumption is expected to decline by 0.5% to 118.6 million tonnes.
Among key importers, China could reduce purchases by 2.4% to 820,000 tonnes, while Japan’s imports are forecast to fall by 2% to 1.48 million tonnes. Mexico, by contrast, is expected to import 1.76 million tonnes, up 3.5% from 2026.
PigUA.info, based on materials from 3tres3.com