According to Rabobank analysts, the global pork market remains under pressure from excess supply and stagnant consumption. These factors are keeping prices low across most major producing regions.
The imbalance is particularly evident in China. Over the past five years, the country has actively expanded production capacity and improved productivity, contributing to a significant build-up of pork supply.
At the same time, the ongoing reduction in China’s sow herd is expected to begin affecting the market from the middle or end of the third quarter. A smaller sow herd will gradually constrain production and support a return to market balance.
Positive developments are also expected in North America, where improving market conditions could become more visible in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Brazil Continues to Expand Its Share of Global Trade
International pork trade is expected to remain relatively stable overall in the second half of the year, although its structure continues to change.
Europe is losing part of its global market share due to animal disease-related challenges and weaker demand from China. Meanwhile, Brazil is rapidly expanding its presence in international markets and increasing exports to record levels.
Mexico and the Philippines are significantly increasing pork purchases, while China, by contrast, is reducing imports.
Future trade dynamics will depend on the animal health situation, geopolitical uncertainty and changes in trade policy. China’s anti-dumping duties on pork imports from the European Union are creating additional pressure.
Rabobank expects these factors to keep global pork trade highly volatile throughout the second half of 2026.
Technology Helps Sustain Production
Despite shrinking pig populations in some countries, global supply continues to be supported by productivity gains.
Producers are increasingly focusing on cost control and operational efficiency. Rabobank identifies the adoption of artificial intelligence, automation of production processes, feed optimisation and genetic progress as key tools.
These technologies help reduce labour costs, improve productivity and partially offset challenges associated with recurring animal disease outbreaks.
According to Rabobank, the gradual reduction in supply in China and stabilisation of production in other regions are expected to trigger a rebalancing of the global pork market by the end of 2026. However, a full price recovery is unlikely before 2027.
PigUA.info, based on materials from euromeatnews.com