According to USDA estimates, global corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year is projected at approximately 1.300 billion metric tons, down 2% from the previous season (1.327 billion metric tons).
The largest decline is expected in the United States, where corn production is forecast to fall by 6% to 406.3 million metric tons. Argentina's crop is projected at 55 million metric tons, nearly 10% lower than last year.
Meanwhile, corn production is expected to increase to 307 million metric tons in China (+1.9%), 57.5 million metric tons in the European Union (+1.2%), and 139 million metric tons in Brazil (+0.7%). USDA forecasts Ukraine's corn harvest at 30 million metric tons, down 2.9% from the previous year.
As a result of lower production, global corn exports are also expected to decline by 4.3%, to 207.6 million metric tons. The United States will remain the world's leading exporter with projected exports of 80 million metric tons, although this is 5.3% below the 2025/26 season. Brazil (44 million metric tons), Argentina (38 million metric tons), and Ukraine (23 million metric tons) are expected to follow.
In contrast, global corn imports are projected to increase slightly to 199.6 million metric tons (+1%). Mexico is expected to remain the largest importer with 27.7 million metric tons, while imports are also forecast to rise in the European Union, Vietnam, and Colombia.
Global ending corn stocks are projected to decline by 7.3% to 281.2 million metric tons. The largest reductions are expected in the United States, China, and Brazil.
The outlook for the global soybean market remains considerably more optimistic. USDA projects global soybean production for the 2026/27 marketing year at a record 441.3 million metric tons, representing a 2.8% increase over the previous season.
Brazil will remain the main driver of growth, with production forecast at 186 million metric tons (+3.3%). U.S. soybean production is also expected to increase to 120.7 million metric tons (+4.1%), while Argentina's output is forecast to remain unchanged at 50 million metric tons. Paraguay is the only major producer expected to see a decline, with production falling to 11.1 million metric tons (-8.3%).
Global soybean exports are forecast to increase by 1.3% to 189.2 million metric tons. Brazil is expected to remain the leading exporter with 117.5 million metric tons, while U.S. exports could rise by nearly 8% to 44.4 million metric tons. In contrast, Argentina's soybean exports are projected to decline by more than 30%, to 6.2 million metric tons.
Global soybean imports are also expected to grow, reaching 188 million metric tons (+1.6%). China is forecast to increase imports to 114 million metric tons, while the European Union is expected to reduce imports slightly to 13.2 million metric tons.
Despite record production, global soybean ending stocks are projected to decline slightly by 0.5%, to 124.9 million metric tons. Stocks are expected to decrease in the United States, China, and Brazil, while Argentina is projected to be the only major producer recording a modest increase.
Experts note that USDA's June outlook highlights diverging trends in global grain markets: the corn market is entering the new season with tighter supplies and lower inventories, while the soybean market continues to benefit from record production and steady global demand.
PigUA.info, based on 3tres3.com