Sentiment across the world’s major pork markets remains subdued, with prices in most regions below last year’s levels. The main reason is excess supply, although the factors driving it vary from region to region.
In China, production has increased as a result of capacity expansion and productivity gains over the past five years. In Europe, prices remain low due to export restrictions affecting Spain in connection with the country’s African swine fever status. As a result, larger volumes of pork have to be sold within the regional market. Rising European production is creating additional pressure.
In North America, supply is slightly above last year’s level, while demand remains weak. Across all regions, higher productivity is contributing to production growth as producers focus on reducing costs and using resources more efficiently.
Reduction in China’s Sow Herd Could Curb Supply
Rabobank expects the ongoing reduction in China’s sow herd to begin affecting supply volumes from the middle or end of the third quarter. However, any price recovery is likely to be moderate due to persistently weak domestic demand.
In North America, market conditions are expected to improve in the fourth quarter, although positive changes could begin earlier.
Global Trade Will Remain Volatile
In the second half of the year, international pork trade volumes are generally expected to remain stable, although trade patterns will continue to shift.
Europe’s share of global exports has declined due to animal disease challenges and weaker demand from China. At the same time, Brazil is rapidly expanding its presence in international markets.
Import patterns are also changing: Mexico and the Philippines are significantly increasing purchases, while China is reducing its import volumes.
The Philippines has officially lifted its nationwide ban on imports of Spanish pork. Meanwhile, China’s anti-dumping duties on EU products, combined with excess domestic supply, caused European pork shipments to the Chinese market to decline by 29% during the first five months of the year.
The spread of animal diseases, geopolitical uncertainty and changes in trade policy remain additional risks to global trade.
Rabobank expects all these factors to sustain high volatility in international pork trade throughout the second half of 2026.
PigUA.info, based on materials from 3tres3.com