According to Rabobank, piglet prices in the Netherlands would need to reach EUR 68 per piglet in order for sow farmers to break even due to the rising cost of feed and energy. At the beginning of the second quarter, the average piglet price increased to EUR 60 per piglet, however that price level was not maintained. After the peak in week 13, the price gradually dropped to EUR 39/kg piglet in week 20. Piglet prices around the current break-even level were seen in the summer of 2019 and from the end of 2019 through the first half of 2020. However, the demand situation was very different from that of today as China’s pork imports had hit a record high at the time. Rabobank says there is little chance that the piglet price will reach break-even levels in 2022, while supply is expected to contract across Europe.
Left: Cost price of fattening pigs to increase by 38%. Source: KWIN, InterPig, European Commission, Agrimatie, Rabobank 2022.
Right: Forecasted break-even pig carcass prices. Source: European Commission, Rabobank 2022.
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