However, regional dynamics will vary significantly. Pork consumption is expected to decline in China, the EU, Japan, and Switzerland. This is attributed to already high baseline consumption levels and growing concerns about health, the environment, and animal welfare. In high-income countries, overall meat demand is stagnating due to similar factors.
In contrast, Latin America is projected to see the largest per capita increase in pork consumption — up by 1.3 kg annually — mainly due to pork’s competitive pricing compared to beef. In most other regions, including Asia, North America, and the EU, per capita pork consumption will grow more slowly or even slightly decline. Overall, global pork consumption per capita is forecast to decrease by 4% compared to the base period.
While total meat production will continue to grow, environmental impact is expected to lessen due to improvements in genetics, feed efficiency, and slaughter processes. Increased carcass weight alone will account for 27% of pork production growth. As a result, despite a 13% increase in total meat production, greenhouse gas emissions will rise by only 6%.
Global trade patterns will also shift. China’s reduced role as a meat importer (with its share dropping from 20% to 16%) is already reshaping export strategies of key suppliers. Overall global meat imports are projected to grow by just 10% over the decade — a sharp slowdown compared to the 37% growth seen in previous years. This trend increases the risk of trade declines if new restrictions are introduced by importing countries.
The forecast also emphasizes the importance of biosecurity. Outbreaks of animal diseases such as African Swine Fever (ASF), highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), and infestations of New World screwworm fly (NWS) pose significant risks to the meat market. Analysts highlight the need for international cooperation in biosecurity as a key condition for the sector’s sustainable development.
Source: PigUA.info based on materials from pig333.com