Leaders in Growth and Decline
Spain recorded the largest increase — up 184,000 tonnes (+7%) to 2.7 million tonnes. Poland expanded output by 50,000 tonnes (+5%) to 984,000 tonnes, while Germany added 39,000 tonnes, reaching 2.15 million tonnes.
In contrast, the Netherlands saw a significant drop of 49,000 tonnes (-7%), down to 985,000 tonnes. Production in France remained nearly unchanged.
Average carcass weight for January–June stood at 97.4 kg per head. Pig slaughter numbers rose by 2% (+1.77 million head), totaling 111.9 million. Spain accounted for the bulk of the increase (+1.27 million head, +5%). Poland added 441,000 head (+5%), while Germany showed only modest growth of 1% (+171,000 head). Meanwhile, declines were recorded in France, Denmark, and particularly in the Netherlands (-7%, or -499,000 head).
Breeding Herd Contraction
According to Eurostat, in December 2024 the breeding sow population across 13 EU countries declined by 3% year-on-year. Spain registered the largest reduction, losing 153,000 head. Only Germany and Denmark reported minor increases. This downward trend creates risks of pork production declining in the second half of 2025.
Price Dynamics
At the start of the year, the market came under pressure due to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Germany, which cut the country off from a number of external markets. Prices began recovering in April and peaked at the end of June at 187.98 p/kg. The rebound was supported by favorable weather that boosted BBQ-season consumption and stronger export demand, especially from China.
However, since July, prices have been gradually declining. By September 7, the average EU price stood at 177.80 p/kg — the fourth consecutive week of decreases, driven by higher-than-expected production and weaker demand.
Exports and Imports
Pork exports (including offal) in the first half of 2025 increased by 1%, totaling 2.96 million tonnes. China remained the top destination, importing 574,500 tonnes (+4% y/y). The main export category continues to be frozen offal. Earlier this year, Spain and China signed a new export protocol granting Spanish companies broader access, including for products such as stomachs.
Meanwhile, shipments to the UK fell by 5% (367,000 tonnes), and exports to Japan dropped by 20% (137,500 tonnes), continuing the downward trend since 2022.
EU pork imports decreased by 6% to 66,200 tonnes. The UK remains the largest supplier (51,900 tonnes). After imports from Chile surged in 2024, volumes in 2025 returned to 2023 levels (3,800 tonnes). The US also showed a modest but noteworthy increase, supplying over 500 tonnes amid ongoing trade talks.
Outlook
Despite strong export performance in the first half of the year, the new EU-China pork trade dispute could complicate the outlook. The introduction of cash deposit requirements will make EU products more expensive and less attractive for Chinese buyers, potentially reducing sales in that market.
At the same time, displaced EU volumes may fuel competition in other markets such as Vietnam and the Philippines, adding downward pressure on global pork prices.
This situation poses risks of further price declines in EU countries in the coming months.
PigUA.info based on euromeatnews.com