Sharp Decline Amid a Europe-Wide Crisis
As a full member of the European Union, Spain mirrors the general negative trend — pork prices are falling across the continent, with Italy being the only partial exception. Among the key contributing factors are new tariffs imposed by China, a weakening U.S. dollar, and overproduction of pork across the European market. The combination of these elements has led to a serious imbalance between supply and demand.
Overproduction and Loss of Competitiveness
Experts note a significant surplus of pork in Europe, with the only real solution being to expand exports beyond the EU. Analysts believe that the price decline will stop only when certain pork products become cheap enough to resume mass exports to foreign markets.
Two months ago, analysts forecasted a minimum price of €1.45/kg, but at the time, China’s new tariffs were not yet announced. Now the situation has worsened — prices have dropped below production costs, and no price recovery is expected in November or December. A slight market rebound may occur in February.
European Pig Sector Under Pressure
Farmers across the EU are facing an extremely difficult period. Although Spanish pig prices have traditionally remained slightly above the EU average, this no longer provides any advantage. In Italy, where prices have been somewhat more stable, the situation is complicated by African swine fever (ASF), which restricts exports of premium processed products.
Due to the ongoing crisis, many European farmers are leaving the industry. The growing concentration of production among large companies has only increased market volatility, as the loss of small producers — who once helped buffer market fluctuations — has made the sector more sensitive to price swings.
Loss of Profit Margins and Hope for Export Recovery
Despite record-low farmgate prices, Spanish slaughterhouses have not yet restored profitability. The situation could improve once prices stabilize at their lowest levels and export volumes begin to recover.
Currently, Spanish pork prices have fallen to the same level as Brazilian prices and are only slightly higher than those in the United States. This may help restore competitiveness in global markets. Analysts expect that once producers start freezing pork without fear of further price declines, the market will stabilize.
A New Cycle: The Sector Must Prove Its Resilience
After several prosperous years, it appears that a new economic cycle has begun for Spanish pig farming. Ahead lies a challenging period in which producers will need to demonstrate the resilience of their production systems.
However, experts remain optimistic:
“The sun will shine again on Spain’s pig industry — it may take some time, but that moment will surely come,” market analysts predict.
PigUA.info based on materials from pig333.com