The illness which the USDA calls a “highly contagious and deadly viral disease affecting both domestic and feral swine of all ages,” can be transmitted in multiple ways. Animals may become infected through the spread of bodily fluids or when they are fed contaminated pork from other pigs, according to the FDA. Ticks can also become vectors for African swine fever.
PigSpread, the research model used in the new study, revealed that farm-to-farm spread would account for 71 percent of transmission, with local and transportation-related spread each contributing 14 percent. “[O]ne very important variable here is vehicular transmission,” says researcher Gustavo Machado, an author of the study. “This dissemination route has never been studied at a large scale, but here it has shown to be pivotal in disease spread.”
The researchers, who found that an outbreak is likely to last more than 140 days — and could lead to the deaths of nearly half a million pigs —caution that even these startling findings are optimistic. The reality could be even worse.
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