The European Commission has published an updated short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2026, indicating that the European pork sector will face another decline in production after a period of partial recovery in 2024–2025.
According to the forecast, EU pork production is expected to reach approximately 21.76 million tonnes in 2026, representing a 1% decrease compared to the estimated 21.98 million tonnes in 2025.
The European Commission notes that the market continues to be affected by prolonged geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which has driven up energy, transportation, and fertilizer costs. This, in turn, increases feed production costs and raises the overall cost of pork production.
Analysts point out that after reaching a production peak of more than 23.6 million tonnes in 2021, the sector experienced a significant downturn due to reduced demand from China and a decline in pig inventories. Production bottomed out in 2023 at approximately 20.8 million tonnes. The recovery observed in 2024 and 2025 is now expected to give way to another downward adjustment in 2026.
The export outlook also remains challenging. After exceeding 4.9 million tonnes in 2020, driven largely by Chinese demand, EU pork exports have been steadily declining. While exports are estimated at 2.98 million tonnes in 2025, they are projected to fall by a further 3% to 2.89 million tonnes in 2026.
The European Commission attributes this decline to high production costs and a weaker economic environment, which reduce the competitiveness of European pork on international markets. Nevertheless, the EU is expected to maintain a positive trade balance and remain a net exporter of pork.
Per capita pork consumption is also forecast to decline slightly. Consumption is expected to reach approximately 32.6 kg per person in 2026, compared to 32.9 kg in 2025. Despite persistently high prices, demand remains relatively stable and well above the level recorded in 2023, when consumption fell to 31 kg per capita.
The EU’s pork self-sufficiency rate is expected to remain high at above 115%. However, the trend continues downward: from 126% in 2020, the rate is projected to decline to 115.1% by 2026.
Overall, the European pork sector is expected to continue adapting to changing market conditions in 2026, facing challenges related to the global economy, international trade, and rising production costs.
PigUA.info, based on pig333.com