AHDB: UK pork production declines, but year-end outlook remains positive

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Between July and September 2025, UK pork production fell by 2.4% year-on-year, totaling 237,000 tonnes, which is also 1% lower than in the previous quarter. These figures were well below the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB)’s initial forecast, which projected 1.4% growth.

The decline was mainly driven by lower slaughter numbers and lighter carcass weights during the summer months. However, signs of recovery were already visible in September — the clean pig kill reached 869,000 head (up 5.2% from August), while average carcass weight increased by 1.4 kg to 90.7 kg, returning to early-year levels.

From January to September 2025, total UK pork production reached 720,000 tonnes, 1.8% higher than in the same period of 2024. This growth was supported by a 1.5% increase in slaughter numbers (to 7.7 million head) and a 0.5 kg increase in average carcass weight.

AHDB forecasts that in Q4 2025, production will return to modest year-on-year growth of about 1%, primarily driven by heavier carcasses, a trend already visible in weekly market samples.

Meanwhile, the number of pigs slaughtered is expected to remain similar to 2024, as processing plant breakdowns in October and Christmas-related scheduling adjustments in November–December will limit throughput.

According to AHDB estimates, total UK pork production for 2025 will reach 968,000 tonnes, 1.5% higher than in 2024. The clean pig kill is forecast to rise by 1.1%, reaching 10.36 million head.

AHDB experts note that after a challenging summer, the sector shows signs of stabilization. Falling feed prices, improved feed conversion efficiency, and milder autumn weather are expected to help producers recover production momentum by the end of the year.


PigUA.info based on AHDB materials

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