USDA now expects Ukraine’s corn production to fall by 3 million tons, down to 29 million tons. The downgraded forecast is based on data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy regarding reduced planting area and harvest delays caused by prolonged rainfall. Analysts also cut Ukraine’s export forecast by 1.5 million tons, to 23 million tons.
By comparison, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) remains more optimistic, estimating this year’s harvest at 32 million tons.
The USDA report also revises projections for other countries. Corn production is expected to decline in Canada, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Senegal. These losses are partly offset by improved forecasts for the EU, Russia, and Zimbabwe.
Key USDA forecast figures for corn:
Global balance:
- Production: 1,286.23 million tons (–0.35 million tons vs. previous forecast)
- Exports: 205.1 million tons (+1.63 million tons)
- Ending stocks: 279.15 million tons (–2.19 million tons)
United States:
- Production: 425.53 million tons
- Exports: 81.28 million tons (+3.17 million tons)
- Ending stocks: 51.53 million tons (–3.18 million tons)
European Union:
- Production: 56.75 million tons (+1 million tons)
- Imports: 20 million tons (–1 million tons)
- Exports: 1.8 million tons
- Ending stocks: 5.79 million tons
China:
- Production: 295 million tons
- Imports: 8 million tons
- Ending stocks: 173.91 million tons
russia:
- Production: 14.5 million tons (+0.4 million tons)
- Exports: 3 million tons
Analysts note that the downward revision for Ukraine could influence global corn market trends, as the country remains one of the world’s top three exporters.