These findings are outlined in the latest USDA Hogs and Pigs quarterly report, analyzed by Steiner and Company on behalf of the National Pork Board.
According to USDA, nearly every major hog inventory category came in at or below the lower end of analysts' expectations. This suggests that U.S. pork production in the second half of 2026 will expand more slowly than previously anticipated.
In June, USDA projected a 1.9% increase in pork production during the second half of the year. However, analysts now indicate that achieving this growth will depend primarily on continued increases in hog carcass weights rather than herd expansion.
At the same time, demand—not supply—remains the industry's greatest challenge. Weak wholesale demand, particularly for processing products, continues to pressure live hog and pork prices. Analysts believe this weakness is partly due to processors and end users overestimating consumer demand and building excessive inventories during the spring and early summer.
The composition of the hog inventory also points to limited growth in slaughter volumes this autumn. Inventories of hogs weighing 50–119 pounds (22.7–54 kg), which determine slaughter supplies from late summer into early autumn, were 0.5% lower than a year earlier, despite market expectations for an increase.
In addition, the March–May pig crop remained virtually unchanged from last year, whereas analysts had expected growth of approximately 1.3%. As a result, fourth-quarter 2026 slaughter volumes are likely to remain close to 2025 levels, with little significant expansion in production.
Analysts note that if wholesale demand stabilizes, tighter supplies could help limit further declines in hog prices. Seasonal improvements in pork consumption during the autumn, when retail promotions and foodservice demand typically increase, could provide additional market support.
USDA also highlights the continued decline in the breeding herd. As of June 1, 2026, the U.S. breeding herd totaled 5.88 million head, down 1.2% from a year earlier and the smallest June 1 inventory since 2014.
According to analysts, this reflects producers' cautious approach. Despite improved profitability compared with previous years, many remain reluctant to expand production due to uncertainty surrounding both domestic and export demand.
Without a meaningful increase in the breeding herd, future pork production growth will continue to rely primarily on productivity gains, including more pigs weaned per litter, improved farrowing performance, and heavier market weights. However, this production model also leaves the industry more vulnerable to disease outbreaks and fluctuations in feed costs.
Analysts emphasize that the current breeding herd is at its lowest level in twelve years and recommend that producers maintain robust risk management strategies, particularly during the summer months when seasonal supply declines coincide with heightened disease risks.
PigUA.info, based on materials from porkcheckoff.org