This is stated in the Rabobank Quarterly Global Pork Market Report – Q1 2026, which outlines a transitional scenario for the global pig industry.
According to analysts, the first half of 2026 will still reflect relatively high supply levels in major producing countries. However, production is expected to contract in the second half of the year. The primary drivers will be a reduction in the sow herd in China and structural adjustments in Europe.
In China, the breeding sow population is projected to decline to around 39 million head as part of a strategy to rebalance supply and demand following a period of overproduction. In the United States and the European Union, growth in the sow herd will remain limited due to health challenges, high expansion costs, and uncertainty in international trade. Under these conditions, improved productivity—driven by technological solutions and automation—will become the main engine of growth.
International trade is also set to continue reshaping. While China accounted for 45% of global pork imports in 2020, its share has significantly declined due to the recovery of domestic production. Meanwhile, Mexico has become the world’s largest importer. Additional uncertainty stems from China’s anti-dumping measures on European pork and Mexico’s introduction of quotas for suppliers without free trade agreements, potentially redirecting global trade flows. At the same time, African swine fever in Asia and Europe continues to hinder production recovery and trigger trade restrictions in certain markets.
In terms of demand, Rabobank anticipates relative global stability, supported by pork’s competitiveness compared to other protein sources, particularly amid high beef prices. However, consumption growth is expected to be moderate and uneven across regions, depending on economic performance and consumer confidence.
Overall, 2026 may become a year of production discipline and strategic risk management for the industry, which will be crucial for maintaining international competitiveness.
PigUA.info based on materials from euromeatnews.com