U.S. Pork Exports Jump — Jim Long

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Jim Long Pork Commentary – October 9, 2023

A week ago, U.S. Pork Export sales were 42,900 metric tonnes. The highest weekly total by far since April. It’s the main reason lean hog futures jumped last Thursday and Friday. Let’s hope exports do increase further from the 7% year over year where they have been running.

Red Meat Production last week was 4.6% lower than the same week a year ago (-49 million lbs.). Beef -6.4%, Pork -2.7%. USDA reports last week’s live hog weight average 281 lbs., a year ago 288 lbs. down 7 lbs. indicating a very current market hog inventory. U.S. Broiler Chick placement a week ago down 3% or -5.5 million. Less Red Meat and less Chicken should support prices of both meat and poultry.

The USDA September 1 Hogs and Pigs Report that indicates the U.S. sow herd only declined 17,000 head since March 1 (1/3 of 1%). March 1 6,096,000, September 1 6,079,000. 17,000 head decline with losses in our industry of billions? Sow slaughter running 5,000 a week more than a year ago since March 1? Gilt sales that are lacklustre? Actual farrowings and intentions down 4−5%? We have sows we don’t breed? Illinois indicating 80,000 more sows year over year? Time will tell what the reality is on the breeding herd. In life if you were within 2% on something that would be considered accurate in most instances. On the U.S. breeding herd 2% is 120,000 plus sows and a market mover.

Cattle Value

Genesus believes that as an industry we need to produce Pork that has a better eating experience. Much too often we hear that consumers won’t pay sometimes it’s from producers but also from some packer Pork salespeople.

The U.S. cattle industry has a grade system that has oversight by USDA inspectors. It’s based on marbling. U.S. Choice grade has higher marbling than Select grade. Increased marbling is a key component to a better eating experience.

Last Friday

Beef cut-outs

Choice 600−900 lb. carcass $ 302.01

Select 600−900 lb. carcass $ 275.78

Choice is selling a 10% premium over Select on 900 lb. carcass over $ 240 per head. It’s obvious consumers will pay more for better tasting Beef. Why would they not pay more for better tasting Pork? A 10% premium increase on a Pork carcass cut-out would be about $ 20 per head. $ 20 per head! We are in an industry chasing pennies that has been losing money. We can’t continue doing what we have been doing. We need as an industry to produce better Pork.

Genesus Jersey Red Pork