Data blackout at the peak of the season
Weekly and monthly USDA reports — including the WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates), export sales reviews, and crop progress reports — have been suspended. Without these data, farmers cannot accurately assess market conditions, and traders are unable to forecast prices for corn, soybeans, or pork.
“The market is just flying blind,” said Illinois farmer and Risk Management Commodities analyst Sherman Newlin.
Analysts note that previous government shutdowns during Donald Trump’s first term had less impact since they occurred after the harvest season. This time, however, the blackout coincides with the peak of the agricultural cycle.
Trade tensions with China deepen uncertainty
The ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict has further complicated the situation. Chinese soybean importers continue to avoid purchasing American crops, and without USDA reports, traders cannot verify whether any progress has been made or confirm export deals.
In addition, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has also suspended the release of data on market speculator positions — crucial information for predicting price fluctuations.
Big corporations gain the upper hand
The lack of official data has made the market far less transparent. According to traders, large corporations such as Cargill, Bunge Global, and Archer-Daniels-Midland, which maintain vast grain inventories and proprietary analytical systems, now have a clear advantage over smaller competitors.
“Without access to CFTC reports, nobody wants to take big risks. We can’t see what the big funds are doing,” Newlin added.
Smaller traders are now turning to alternative sources — speaking directly with farmers, analyzing satellite imagery, or tracking technical price movements on the Chicago Board of Trade to fill the information gap.
A market in limbo
Because of this “information vacuum,” futures trading volumes have dropped sharply. Analysts warn that when regular USDA reporting resumes, markets may face a price shock.
“Everyone in the industry relies on the WASDE report. When it’s finally published, all yield estimates could turn out to be off,” said Erica Maedke, vice president of Ever.Ag Insights.
Private firms such as StoneX and S&P Global Commodity Insights have released their own projections, suggesting lower corn yields than initially expected. However, the USDA remains the market’s gold standard due to its extensive use of satellite monitoring, field sampling, and farmer surveys.
“USDA provides the most objective numbers we have,” said Diana Klemme of Grain Service Corporation. “They may not always be perfect, but the market trades on them — and we feel their absence.”
Farm support program also frozen
In addition to the data blackout, the government shutdown has delayed a new farm aid program intended to support producers affected by trade disputes. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the administration had planned to announce a package of direct subsidies to help farmers bridge the gap until the next season, but the plan was halted by the shutdown.
“We would have already announced an aid program if not for the government shutdown. Farmers need a financial bridge to the next season,” Bessent said on Fox News.
He also expressed optimism that Chinese soybean buyers might return to the market toward the end of the season once the political situation stabilizes.
PigUA.info based on Reuters / Fox News