According to European Commission experts, average per capita pork consumption in the EU could fall from 23.8 kg to 21.8 kg by 2035, corresponding to an average annual decline of about 0.9%. Similar downward trends are projected for production, which is expected to decrease by an average of 0.9% per year. As a result, total EU pork production in 2035 is forecast at around 19.7 million tonnes—approximately 1.8 million tonnes less than current levels.
At the same time, the European Commission expects global pork import volumes to remain relatively stable through 2035, at around 10.5 million tonnes per year. The recovery of production capacities in China and Vietnam is expected to reduce their import demand, while several countries in Africa and Asia may experience increased demand for imported pork.
Lower demand from China is likely to intensify competition in Asian markets from exporters such as the United States, Canada, and Brazil. As a result, EU pork exports could decline by an average of about 1.0% per year through 2035, reducing the EU’s share of global pork exports from 28.5% to 26%.
Regarding prices, the European Commission forecasts that the average pork price in the EU will be around €2.00/kg by 2035. While this is in line with recent years, EU prices are expected to remain higher than producer prices in Brazil and Canada, continuing to affect the competitiveness of European pork on global markets.
PigUA.info, based on materials from euromeatnews.com