The decrease is attributed to several factors, including an abnormally warm winter, insufficient early-season moisture, and prolonged spring rains that delayed sowing by up to two weeks in some regions. Additionally, ongoing war risks and landmines continue to disrupt farming activity in many areas.
“We are expecting a difficult season. The most negative forecast is a 10% drop in grain and a 5% drop in oilseed crops. It’s not a disaster, but the situation is definitely challenging,” Koval noted.
Preliminary forecast for 2025 harvest:
- Corn: approx. 26 million tons
- Wheat: 20–22 million tons
- Barley: 4.5 million tons
- Other grains: 1.5 million tons
- Sunflower seeds: 11.5 million tons
- Sugar beets: 11 million tons
- Total oilseeds: 20.16 million tons (vs. 21.18 million in 2024), including a projected 600,000-ton reduction in rapeseed
Ukraine remains the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil, but weather-related challenges and the war may impact output and trade volumes in the 2025/26 marketing year.
While the ministry has not yet released an official grain export forecast for 2025/26, due to uncertainty surrounding the final harvest volumes, analysts estimate total grain exports could reach 40.9 million tons, including 15–15.5 million tons of wheat.
Earlier, the analytical firm ASAP Agri projected a decline in Ukrainian wheat exports for the 2025/26 July–June season, citing potential changes in EU import policies, uncertain yield prospects, and improving crop outlooks in EU-importing countries.