Analysts at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) have revised their 2026 pig meat production forecast after first-quarter results substantially outperformed earlier expectations.
At the beginning of the year, AHDB had projected a slight decline in production due to the continued contraction of the breeding herd. It was expected that the backlog of pigs accumulated at the end of 2025 would clear quickly, leading to lower slaughter numbers. However, the market evolved differently.
According to the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), pig meat production reached 257,000 tonnes between January and March 2026, an increase of 5.3% compared with the same period last year. By comparison, AHDB’s original forecast was only 239,000 tonnes, implying a decline of around 2%.
The increase was driven by two main factors: clean pig slaughter rose by 2.3% year-on-year to 2.64 million head, while the average clean carcass weight climbed to 94.2 kg, almost 2.8 kg heavier than in the first quarter of 2025.
AHDB explains that the anticipated pig backlog has been clearing more slowly than expected due to weak market demand. As a result, pigs have remained on farms longer and reached slaughter at heavier weights.
Taking into account the first-quarter results and monthly data through May, AHDB has revised its full-year 2026 forecast to approximately 1.03 million tonnes, around 5% higher than the 978,000 tonnes produced in 2025.
For the full year, clean pig slaughter is now expected to reach approximately 10.77 million head, up 3.3% from last year. Average carcass weights are forecast at 92.3 kg, approximately 1.5 kg heavier than the 2025 average.
Despite higher production, market conditions remain challenging for producers. Pig prices in Great Britain continue to come under pressure. In the week ending 13 June, the EU-spec Standard Pig Price (SPP) stood at 177.98 pence per kilogram, reflecting abundant supplies and subdued demand.
At the same time, production costs declined during the first quarter of 2026, but not enough to restore profitability. According to AHDB, most producers continue to operate with negative net margins.
Analysts believe that market developments during the remainder of the year will depend on several key factors, including domestic consumer demand, feed costs, global trade developments, and the speed at which the current pig surplus is absorbed.
Looking further ahead, AHDB does not expect the elevated production levels seen in 2026 to be sustained. Once the remaining pig backlog has cleared and the contraction of the breeding herd resumes, both slaughter throughput and carcass weights are expected to decline.
Under the current forecast, UK pig meat production will fall to approximately 952,400 tonnes in 2027, a 7.2% decrease compared with the projected 2026 level. Clean pig slaughter is expected to decline to around 10.1 million head.
At the same time, the stronger-than-expected production figures raise new questions about the underlying supply base. AHDB analysts suggest that either the breeding herd is larger than indicated by official census data or sow productivity has improved more rapidly than anticipated. The answer to this question will have a significant impact on the outlook for UK pork supplies in the coming years.
PigUA.info, based on information from Euromeatnews.com