Global pork production in 2024 declined slightly by 0.6%, totaling 115.6 million metric tons. This also affected pig feed production, which dropped 1.23% to 320.8 million metric tons.
Despite reaching a near-record 3.23 million metric tons of pork exports in 2024, the U.S. now risks losing key markets due to its unpredictable trade stance. China, one of the largest buyers of U.S. pork, has responded with retaliatory tariffs. In 2024, China accounted for 13% of U.S. pork exports, worth $8.63 billion. However, by February 2025, U.S. pork exports had already dropped 4.8% year-over-year.
Analysts warn that a prolonged U.S.-China trade conflict could endanger the entire American animal protein sector. China remains the top supplier of vitamins and amino acids — critical feed ingredients. It provides 78% of U.S. vitamin imports and controls over 62% of global lysine, threonine, and valine production. The disruption of this supply chain could pose significant threats to U.S. food and feed security.
In contrast, Brazil is seizing the moment. With low production costs and strong global demand, Brazil’s pork exports are forecast to grow by 5% in 2025, according to the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service. One key example is Mexico — a major U.S. export partner. While the U.S. previously held 82% of Mexico’s pork market, Brazil’s exports to Mexico rose by 50% in 2024 and climbed another 25% in Q1 2025.
“These volumes are likely to keep increasing, especially as price remains a decisive factor,” said Brian Earnest, an animal protein economist at CoBank. “While U.S. pork remains preferred for freshness and quality, Brazil’s pricing advantage is increasingly influential.”
The report also highlights key trends by country:
- EU & UK: Pork prices are under pressure due to seasonal oversupply and recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, particularly affecting German exports.
- Canada: Favorable late-2024 hog market conditions are expected to support profitability in 2025; exports benefit from a weak euro and higher U.S. prices.
- Japan: Strong demand for imported chilled pork continues amid high domestic prices, though small producers are exiting due to high feed costs and intermittent disease outbreaks.
- South Korea: Pork production is in decline due to African Swine Fever (ASF) and ongoing economic disruptions. Imports were sharply down at the end of 2024.
- Vietnam: Pork prices remain strong in early 2025, driven by limited domestic supply and continued ASF challenges despite improving economic conditions.
- Philippines: Production continues to decline due to ASF and a fragmented market. Imports surged in 2024 to meet recovering demand.
Analysts suggest that 2025 may be a turning point for the global pork industry as traditional trade relationships shift, competition intensifies, and geopolitical risks reshape the export landscape.
feedstrategy.com