Pigmeat
Pigmeat consumption in the EU is challenged by sustainability concerns and is therefore projected to decrease by 0.4% per year, falling to 30 kg in 2035.
Intensive pigmeat production systems are likely to face further societal criticism, contributing to a decline in EU pigmeat production. African swine fever is assumed to remain in the EU but without any major or uncontrolled outbreaks.
EU pigmeat exports - which increased in the previous decade - are expected to decline -338 000 t between the 2022/24 average and 2035 due to a recovery in pigmeat production in Asian countries. Accounting EU export volumes from 2024, they are projected to remain almost stable until 2035.
Pigmeat prices could remain higher than past levels due to increased costs and reduced EU supply.
EU pigmeat market balance (million t). Production corresponds to gross indigenous production. Source: European Commission.
Other meats
Beef production is projected to decrease driven by sustainability concerns, low profitability, and a stricter regulatory framework. Similarly, beef consumption is expected to decline driven by tight supply and high prices.
Poultry could continue benefitting from a healthier image and a relatively cheaper price. Together with further export opportunities, this would push poultry production upward between now and 2035, albeit at a lower yearly growth rate than seen in the past decade.
A decline in sheep and goat meat production is expected to continue (although with different trends among EU countries). EU per capita consumption is expected to remain relatively stable due to sustained consumption patterns related to cultural traditions.
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