The European grain trade association Coceral has cut its forecast for EU maize production by nearly 8% to 52.7 million tonnes, the lowest projected output since 2007. Earlier, commodity intelligence firm Expana also lowered its estimate by about 7%, citing severe weather damage in France and Hungary.
France is currently experiencing its third heatwave since late May, with little significant rainfall expected in the coming days. According to the French agricultural agency FranceAgriMer, maize crop conditions fell last week to their lowest level in at least 15 years.
According to Benoit Fayaud, senior grain analyst at Expana, yield losses are increasing virtually every day due to the combination of extreme temperatures and a lack of moisture.
Expana currently forecasts the French maize harvest at 8.9 million tonnes, approximately one-third lower than last year. However, analysts do not rule out production falling below 8 million tonnes, which would mark the country's smallest maize crop since 1976, another year marked by extreme summer weather.
As crop conditions continue to deteriorate, some farmers in western France have already begun cutting non-irrigated maize before pollination is complete to use it as livestock feed. While this helps preserve forage supplies, it also reduces the area that will ultimately be harvested for grain.
The French maize growers' association (AGPM) last week projected a 30% decline in maize production to 9.5 million tonnes, which would be the lowest output recorded this century. However, as weather conditions continue to worsen, the organization now expects to revise its forecast even lower.
Adverse weather is affecting not only France but also Hungary and Spain. In addition, repeated droughts, declining profitability of maize cultivation, and rising fertilizer and energy costs have reduced the EU maize area to less than 8 million hectares this year—the first time this has occurred in the 21st century.
Meanwhile, conditions in Romania are considerably more favorable. Thanks to abundant rainfall, higher yields are expected to offset the reduction in planted area. According to AGRIColumn consultant Cezar Gheorghe, Romania's maize harvest could reach 8.2 million tonnes in 2026, compared with the official estimate of 7.75 million tonnes for 2025.
Analysts note that worsening crop prospects in France—one of Europe's key maize producers—are increasing risks for the EU grain market. If dry weather persists, European maize production could decline even further, affecting both the grain market and feed supplies for the livestock sector.
PigUA.info, based on Reuters