In its biannual report on global food markets, the FAO forecasts that global meat production in 2024 will expand marginally to 371 million tonnes (carcass weight equivalents). Output increases are anticipated in all the regions, except for Asia, most notably in pig meat in China.
In 2024, the forecast expansion of global meat production is likely to be led by poultry meat, which is forecast to increase 0.8% year-on-year, to 146 million tonnes. Global bovine and ovine meat outputs are also forecast to expand further in 2024. By contrast, global pig meat production is predicted to shrink by about 1.2 million tonnes or 0.9% from 2023. This reduction will be principally caused by an anticipated decline in China following the government’s efforts to contain oversupply and sustain domestic price stability by reducing the breeding sow numbers and adjusting the target of the national swine stock.
World trade in meat and meat products is forecast to rebound after two consecutive years of contraction. The rebound will be principally driven by a solid import demand expected in all regions, especially in Northern America.
However, this positive outlook could be affected by trade restrictions stemming from the spread of animal diseases, geopolitical factors, and curbed consumer purchasing power. As measured by the FAO Meat Price Index, international meat prices increased moderately from January to May this year despite a slowdown in the pace of price increases in recent months. Price increases were registered across bovine, poultry, and pig meats, principally underpinned by a solid demand from leading importing countries, notwithstanding increased supplies from the major meat exporters. By contrast, international ovine meat prices declined, mainly due to ample exportable supplies in Oceania, the world’s largest supplier.
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