These findings are outlined in a market analysis published by the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, pork production increased by 4.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, reaching 16.7 million tonnes. During the same period, Chinese producers slaughtered 200.3 million pigs, up 2.8% from a year earlier. Analysts attribute the production growth primarily to improvements in productivity.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government continues to implement measures to rebalance supply and demand. Authorities aim to reduce the national sow herd to 36.5 million head, down from 39.6 million at the end of 2025, while also restricting access to certain credit and subsidy programmes and maintaining average slaughter weights at around 120 kg.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), China is expected to produce approximately 59.5 million tonnes of pork in 2026, almost unchanged from the previous year. Higher slaughter numbers are expected to be offset by lower carcass weights, keeping overall pork production broadly stable.
Despite strong production, the market remains under pressure. From January to mid-June, the average live pig price stood at 11.3 yuan/kg, down 27% compared with the same period in 2025. After a slight increase at the beginning of the year, prices declined due to abundant domestic supply and weak demand.
To support the market, central and local governments began purchasing pork for state reserves, helping prices stabilise from April onwards.
Wholesale pork prices have also remained below last year's levels. According to China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), the national average wholesale pork price for the week ending 22 June stood at 14.5 yuan/kg, approximately 28% lower than a year earlier.
AHDB analysts note that demand traditionally remains weak following the Lunar New Year celebrations. In addition, consumers are increasingly shifting toward cheaper protein sources such as eggs, tofu and soy-based products, further limiting market recovery.
Abundant domestic supplies have also affected international trade. Between January and May 2026, China reduced pork imports by 30% to 314,000 tonnes, reflecting ample domestic availability and subdued demand.
The European Union remains China's largest pork supplier despite the anti-dumping duties imposed by Beijing. Spain continues to be the leading individual exporter, followed by Brazil and the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, the United States has continued to lose market share due to ongoing trade restrictions.
The EU also maintains its leading position in China's pork offal imports, accounting for a 52% market share.
According to Rabobank, China's pork imports may gradually recover during the second half of 2026 as domestic production tightens following government-led sow herd reductions. However, weak consumer spending and the broader macroeconomic environment are expected to continue weighing on demand. Analysts also recommend that exporters diversify their sales by focusing more on emerging markets across Southeast and East Asia.
Source: PigUA.info, based on Euromeatnews.com