Despite an expected slight decline in the sow herd, Japan’s total pig inventory in 2027 is forecast to remain virtually unchanged at around 8.64 million head.
Pork production is also expected to stay stable at approximately 1.27 million tonnes carcase weight equivalent.
The sector will continue to be supported by steady domestic demand. With beef prices remaining high, pork retains its position as a more affordable source of animal protein in both retail and foodservice. As a result, pork consumption in 2027 is expected to remain close to the previous year’s level.
Pig Production Continues to Consolidate
The number of pig farms in Japan has fallen by 8% compared with 2024, although the total pig population has remained almost unchanged.
The main reasons behind the exit of smaller farms are the ageing of farm owners and a lack of successors. Some farms are leaving the sector even while they remain profitable.
Around 70% of all pigs in Japan are now raised on farms with 3,000 head or more. The trend towards consolidation of medium-sized operations into larger production units is expected to continue.
Imports to Decline After Sharp Growth in 2026
Japan’s pork imports are forecast at 1.46 million tonnes carcase weight equivalent in 2027, 2% lower than in 2026.
Demand for imported pork is expected to remain strong, but the sharp increase in purchases in 2026 resulted in substantial carryover stocks. This is expected to slow imports during the following year.
North America will remain Japan’s main source of pork imports. At the same time, shipments from Canada have increased notably since 2024.
The growth in Canadian exports is attributed to new small and medium-sized processors entering the chilled pork segment for the Japanese market, as well as more competitive pricing by Canadian companies against U.S. products.
Brazil Partly Replaces Spain
Around 50% of Japan’s pork imports consist of frozen products. In 2026, shipments from Spain fell sharply after import restrictions were introduced following confirmed cases of African swine fever.
Against this backdrop, Brazil, which has been expanding shipments to the Japanese market since 2025, continued to increase export volumes.
A further 15% of imports consists of processed pork products. In some categories, there is a growing trend towards importing finished products, as companies compare their cost with the expense of purchasing and processing imported raw materials.
Overall, Japan’s pork market is expected to remain relatively stable in terms of production and consumption in 2027, while the structure of imports will continue to shift among the main supplier countries.
PigUA.info, based on materials from 3tres3.com