Supply growth is being supported by slightly higher slaughter volumes and heavier average hog weights. At the same time, the retail pork demand index fell to its lowest level since 2020 ahead of the grilling season.
According to a forecast by the USDA Economic Research Service, the United States could export 7.2 billion pounds of pork in 2026, 2.9% more than in 2025.
This growth is expected despite a slowdown in shipments to Mexico in early summer following the introduction of Aujeszky’s disease-related restrictions on pork from Iowa and Texas.
Mexico remains the largest foreign market for US pork and is particularly important for ham exports. By contrast, prospects for the Chinese market continue to deteriorate due to the recovery of domestic pork production and weaker consumer demand.
Higher corn prices are placing additional pressure on US producers by increasing feed costs.
CoBank notes that ham and belly sales, along with pork stocks in cold storage ahead of the holiday season, will indicate how effectively seasonal demand can absorb the available supply.
PigUA.info, based on materials from thepigsite.com