Global pork trade in 2026 was significantly affected by two factors: the detection of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain in November 2025 and higher-than-expected pig slaughter in China as the country reduced its swine inventory. This increased available pork supplies and contributed to lower global prices.
Following the ASF outbreaks, several countries restricted imports of Spanish pork. Japan, Malaysia and Taiwan continue to maintain restrictions, while China, South Korea and the Philippines have recognised regionalisation, allowing shipments from unaffected areas to continue.
At the same time, some Spanish pork was redirected to the EU internal market. Other countries, including Denmark and France, partially replaced Spain in markets where restrictions remain in place.
China to Reduce Imports
In China, herd reductions were accompanied by more intensive slaughter in early 2026, resulting in substantial domestic pork stocks. Between January and August, the country’s imports fell by almost 30% compared with the same period of 2025.
In 2027, Chinese pork imports are forecast to decline by a further 2% to around 820,000 tonnes.
Abundant global supply has already contributed to lower export prices. By July, the average export value of EU pork had fallen by almost 9%, while Brazilian pork export prices were down 2% and US prices declined slightly.
This encouraged buying in the first half of the year: imports by Japan rose by 5%, South Korea by 18% and the Philippines by 1%. However, the build-up of stocks is already slowing purchasing, and demand from Japan and South Korea is expected to decline in 2027.
EU Exports to Fall, US and Brazil to Post Modest Growth
EU pork exports are forecast at 2.95 million tonnes in 2027, below the 2026 level, due to lower production and stronger competition. European suppliers may increasingly seek markets in Africa and other regions.
US pork exports are forecast to grow by around 1%, although weaker demand from key Asian importers will continue to create pressure.
Brazil could increase shipments by 2%. At the same time, an oversupply of pigs in early 2026 weakened producer profitability, which is expected to limit the pace of further growth. Brazilian exporters are likely to focus more actively on expanding sales to South American and African markets.
PigUA.info, based on materials from 3tres3.com