According to the updated estimates, total U.S. pork production in 2025 is expected to reach 13.8 million tonnes, down less than 1% compared to last year. A 3% drop in pork exports in July, largely driven by an 11% decline in shipments to Mexico, also influenced the outlook.
Profitability Remains Steady
Despite the downward revision, USDA analysts note that hog sector profitability remains favorable. The lower availability of slaughter-ready pigs is pushing processors to pay higher prices, while rising beef prices continue to support wholesale pork values.
At the same time, feed costs are declining, easing the overall financial burden on producers. According to September WASDE projections, U.S. corn output in 2025 is expected to increase by 13% year over year, while soybean meal production is forecast to grow by 4%. This should help maintain stable or lower feed costs through 2025–2026.
Fewer Hogs for Slaughter Due to Disease Outbreaks
In August, federally inspected U.S. slaughter plants processed approximately 10.1 million hogs, a 2.7% decrease compared with the same month last year. With average carcass weights down slightly (94.8 kg vs. 95.2 kg in August 2024), total pork output fell by 3.2%.
Part of this decline is linked to ongoing disease outbreaks in key producing states such as Iowa and Minnesota. The Swine Health Information Center reported that PRRSV (Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus) cases in these regions remain well above normal levels, resulting in fewer market-ready pigs and disruptions in slaughter schedules.
Pork Demand Remains Strong
Despite lower production, U.S. consumer demand for pork remains robust. As of September 15, the average pork cutout value stood at $114.51 per hundredweight, more than 20% higher than a year earlier.
Analysts suggest that the increase reflects not only tighter supply but also strong consumer preference for pork, especially amid rising beef prices.
Overall, the USDA expects that the 2025 pork production decline will be moderate, while the sector should maintain solid profitability due to firm meat prices, easing feed costs, and sustained domestic and export demand.
Source: PigUA.info based on ThePigSite.com