The project forms part of a broader programme to prepare the British pig industry for a potential introduction of ASF and will update previous assessments conducted in 2018 and 2020.
London Economics will analyse the consequences of an outbreak under scenarios in which trading partners do not recognise regionalisation and compare them with scenarios where regionalisation is accepted. The study will also separately assess the differences between outbreaks in wild boar and domestic pigs.
The research will also examine the potential use of compartmentalisation and its possible impact on economic losses. A scenario-based economic model will be developed, combining data on production, trade and farm finances.
Particular attention will be paid to market access, regional differences, disease-control costs, producer incomes, and the impact on the processing and export sectors.
An important part of the project will be an industry delegation visit to Spain in early 2027. Participants will study Spain’s experience in responding to ASF, including outbreak management, regionalisation, trade impacts and recovery measures.
The project began in September 2026, with the final report expected in the first quarter of 2027. Its findings are intended to support further industry preparedness planning, government policy discussions and business decision-making.
PigUA.info, based on materials from ahdb.org.uk