“The pork industry started 2025 with a record-low pig inventory — fewer than 2.9 million head,” explains Oleksandra Bondarska, Head of the Analytical Department at the Association of Ukrainian Pig Breeders (AUPB). “This had a direct impact on production results. Although the number of pigs in agricultural enterprises has grown slightly, it’s too early to talk about a steady recovery. What we’re seeing now is more of a seasonal fluctuation that occurs every year.”
External trade is another factor, though its effect on prices remains limited.
“Despite a significant increase in pork imports — in the first eight months of the year they were 6.5 times higher than the total volume imported in 2024 — imports still do not significantly affect price dynamics,” Bondarska notes. “Currently, imports account for the equivalent of just 5% of industrial pork production or less than 3% of total volume. Therefore, the domestic market largely depends on local supply.”
Seasonal factors have also played their part in keeping prices high.
“Pork prices always rise somewhat in the summer,” Bondarska explains. “Hot weather slows animal weight gain, reducing the supply of market-ready pork. This year, the seasonal factor coincided with a general production decline, which kept prices at a high level.”
Looking ahead, Bondarska notes that prices may see a slight dip by the end of the year, though the decrease is not expected to be significant.
“Traditionally, at the end of the third quarter and beginning of the fourth quarter, demand for pork weakens,” she says. “This is due to the availability of alternative protein sources, such as backyard-raised animals, poultry, fish, and mushrooms. Consumers are also preparing for the heating season. However, this year, due to lower production volumes, the expected drop in prices will likely be minimal.”
Still, the market is expected to pick up again by late November.
“Meat processors start stocking up for the winter holidays, and consumer demand grows in December,” Bondarska adds. “Since there’s no rush among producers to significantly expand production, supply in autumn will likely remain limited, though slightly higher than in summer. This will probably ‘soften’ any expected price decline in the pork market.”
The Association of Ukrainian Pig Breeders (AUPB) is a non-profit, voluntary organization founded by domestic pork producers. Its key objectives are to represent and protect the rights and interests of its members, promote the development and implementation of advanced production technologies, expand sales markets, and safeguard the domestic market.