Global production is forecast up nearly 2 percent in 2018 to 113.1 million tons, primarily on expansion in China and to a lesser extent the United States.
China’s pork production will rise for the second consecutive year as producers respond to positive returns. Additions to the sow herd and higher finished weights will both drive production during 2018.
Robust consumer demand for pork will also boost output in Russia, the Philippines, and Mexico. Among major producers, only the European Union will reduce output due to a stagnant domestic market and export sales.
Global exports are forecast nearly 3 percent higher in 2018 driven by strong demand from Mexico, the Philippines, and South America (Argentina, Chile, and Colombia) where competitive prices support gains in per capita consumption. China will remain the top importer, but shipments will fall for the second consecutive year due to rising domestic production. The European Union will remain the largest exporter — unchanged at 2.8 million tons — but export growth is challenged by declining shipments to China and an appreciating euro.
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