According to Pan Chenjun, Senior Animal Protein Analyst at Rabobank (Hong Kong), the growth in production directly stems from farmers’ efforts to curb market oversaturation by slaughtering pigs faster.
“This has also contributed to the recent decline in hog prices,” the expert noted.
Data from MySteel shows that as of October 21, the average live hog price in China stood at 11.2 yuan ($1.57) per kilogram, compared to over 17 yuan/kg during the same period last year. Meanwhile, in the first nine months of 2025, the country slaughtered 529.9 million pigs, up 1.8% year-on-year.
Despite reduction efforts, the overall pig herd at the end of September remained high — 436.8 million head (+2.3% YoY), while the sow herd reached 40.35 million, down 0.7% year-on-year but still above the “normal” level of 39 million.
Chinese authorities have stepped up measures to stabilize the market, calling on major companies to reduce breeding sows, limit slaughter weights to around 120 kg, and tighten control over loans and subsidies.
Analysts forecast that the number of breeding sows will continue to decline through the end of the year, while a more noticeable reduction in the overall herd will likely be seen around mid-2026.
During the first nine months of 2025, China’s total pork production rose 3%, reaching 43.68 million tons.
The supply glut, fueled by weak post-pandemic demand and an overall economic slowdown, has put significant price pressure on farmers. At the same time, the government’s attempts to curb overproduction have had only a partial effect — the industry still needs time to restore balance between supply and demand.
Experts expect 2026 to become a turning point: herd reduction could lead to a gradual recovery in prices. However, the current situation remains challenging for Chinese producers, many of whom are operating with minimal profitability.
PigUA.info based on materials from Reuters