The further spread of ASF in Ukraine will not be necessarily diffused. State Service of Food Safety and Consumer Protection observes: «The disease can occur in any region of the country unexpectedly: even several months after the last closed outbreaks as a result of the accumulation of the infected pig products from the population in the ASF struck areas. The transportation of the infected products from the struck regions (during the isolation period and after that) on the Ukrainian territory is another initiating agent.»
The most intensively spreading of the contaminated products is at the end of fattening season and in winter. ASF outbreaks among the domestic pigs occur in the areas with a relatively low density of livestock, and extensive pig production.
State Service of Food Safety and Consumer Protection is disappointed: «If disease appears in the areas with higher density of pigs farms (in the backyard farms), the industrial farms contamination is inevitable. According to the retrospective analysis, in the endemic ASF areas the percentage of households messages reaches 28%. Therefore, every third or fourth infected pig farm is expected to be a commercial pig complex.»
The disease has spread among the wild livestock and the backyard farms. The specialized and especially small pig farms fall into the zone of risk. Moreover, the ASF can occur in any region of Ukraine. The most dangerous its penetration is in the West of Ukraine, because the density of livestock in pigs farms there is higher than in the other areas of the country.