Chinese demand peaked in 2020–2021, when the country was heavily dependent on imported pork due to the impact of ASF. However, purchases began to decline from 2022 as domestic production recovered.
According to RaboResearch, China is now roughly self-sufficient in pork and is expected to rely more on imports of organs and other pork by-products than on high-quality meat. At the same time, other Asian markets — including the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea — are becoming increasingly important for exporters.
Mexico and Brazil Strengthen Their Positions
One of the biggest changes in North America has been the rise of Mexico, which has become the world’s largest pork importer when offal is excluded. The United States is increasingly directing its exports towards the Mexican market rather than China.
Brazil, meanwhile, has become the world’s third-largest pork exporter after the EU and the United States, overtaking Canada. Its production growth is being driven primarily by exports rather than domestic demand. RaboResearch expects Brazilian shipments to continue expanding, provided the country further diversifies its export markets.
European Sector Expected to Contract
In the EU, developments are moving in the opposite direction. The recovery of Chinese production, stronger competition from Brazil in Asian markets, export restrictions linked to ASF in Spain, and increased European production following two profitable years have resulted in an oversupplied market.
In the short term, RaboResearch sees a reduction in production as one way of restoring market balance. Over the longer term, pig numbers and production capacity are also expected to decline due to stricter animal welfare and environmental requirements in Denmark, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands.
As a result, the global pork market is becoming less dependent on a single major importer, while competition among the EU, the United States and Brazil for markets in Asia and other regions is intensifying.
PigUA.info, based on materials from foodagribusiness.world