According to the bank, the current imbalance in the European market began to develop in late 2025. Key factors include Chinese tariffs, which have made exports of certain pork cuts more difficult, as well as restrictions on imports of Spanish pork outside the EU following African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks. As a result, more Spanish pork remained on the EU internal market.
Further pressure is coming from the strong euro, which makes European pork more expensive on the global market. At the same time, major production costs remain high.
In the third quarter of 2026, ABN AMRO noted some improvement: pig prices rose slightly, piglet supply declined, and exports to Germany and Spain began to recover cautiously. However, given higher pork production in Europe and continuing export restrictions, the bank does not expect a significant price recovery.
The most difficult outlook over the next six months is forecast for farms specialising in piglet production, as current prices do not cover all production costs.
Finishing farms, by contrast, may see some improvement due to lower purchase prices for piglets. Farrow-to-finish farms are expected to continue operating slightly below break-even levels.
Farms participating in schemes such as Beter Leven, where premiums or compensation are linked to production costs, are better protected.
In the longer term, the sector will continue to face pressure from high costs associated with manure management, housing upgrades and the transition to higher animal welfare standards. According to ABN AMRO, these investments could make it increasingly difficult for some pig farms to achieve sufficient profitability.
PigUA.info, based on materials from 3tres3.com