Impact on the European Market
China has traditionally been the largest export market for Spanish pork, meaning that an additional 20% tariff will inevitably lead to a significant reduction in exports. The consequences will be particularly severe for the offal segment, as China is the main consumer of ears, liver, and other parts of the carcass. Production of these items may cease due to unprofitability, while meat will have to be sold on the EU internal market. This creates the risk of oversupply and falling prices.
Analysts emphasize that increased slaughter in the EU, heavier carcass weights, weak consumer demand, and the return of large volumes of Spanish products to the market will only intensify pressure on prices. As a result, by the end of the year, pork prices may fall significantly across all EU countries.
Geopolitical Dimension
European experts believe that the tariffs imposed by China are a response to Brussels’ actions, in particular the EU’s anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles. However, a new geopolitical reality also plays a key role: Brazil and Russia are actively entering the Chinese market, steadily consolidating their positions as suppliers.
Meanwhile, in August, Chinese authorities carried out strategic purchases of pork to support domestic prices and advised producers to reduce the number of breeding sows. This indicates an oversupplied market, making it unlikely that the tariffs will be lifted in the short term.
Situation in Spain
In September, pork prices in Spain continued to fall: from €1.643/kg live weight at the end of August to €1.52 after just four trading sessions. This 12-cent drop adds to earlier losses in July and August (down 17 cents). Experts hesitate to predict where the decline will stop, but it is clear that prices will end the year well below last year’s levels.
Challenges for Europe
Against the backdrop of rapid production growth in Latin America and significant progress in Russia, which is becoming an increasingly confident competitor in Asia, the EU faces the prospect of reducing its own production to about 105% self-sufficiency over the next few years.
The European pork sector, already burdened with strict regulations, now finds itself in a situation where competitiveness is falling while global competitors are strengthening their positions. Escaping this crisis will require finding a new balance and rethinking the EU’s role in the global pork market.
Source: PigUA.info, based on pig333.com