Three Phases of China’s Pig Industry Development
According to Chenjun Pan, Senior Analyst for Animal Protein at Rabobank, the development of the sector can be divided into three phases:
- 2010 — the start of large-scale, industrial pork production, which at that time still accounted for only a small share of the overall market.
- 2019–2022 — the African Swine Fever (ASF) crisis, which led to market turbulence, consolidation, and the closure of many small producers, while large agribusinesses strengthened their positions.
- The current stage — a focus on efficiency, driven both by slowing domestic demand and oversupply, as well as by proactive adoption of new technologies by leading companies.
“These changes are driven not only by external challenges but also by the initiatives of the companies themselves, which are actively embracing new technologies,” notes Chenjun Pan.
Shift in Ownership
Rabobank forecasts significant ownership changes after 2025. Before the ASF epidemic, large-scale enterprises with more than 10,000 sows accounted for only around 10% of national pork production, while smallholders (with fewer than 50 sows) produced nearly 40%. Going forward, large-scale enterprises could account for 40% of production, while smallholder farms may drop to just 10%.
At the same time, China continues to face considerably higher production costs compared to other pork-exporting countries. Key factors include:
- high grain prices,
- low feed conversion efficiency,
- inconsistent genetics quality,
- biosecurity challenges.
It is expected that automation and the introduction of “smart farming” practices will help reduce some of these costs.
Global Market Impact
China’s transition from growth to efficiency will have serious implications for the global market. Rabobank predicts a slowdown in demand for soybeans and other feed crops from China’s livestock sector. Hog feed consumption in China is expected to stabilize in the coming years and may eventually begin to decline.
Thus, the new phase of China’s pig industry signals not only changes for the domestic market but also a transformation of global trade flows in grains and protein feed.
Source: PigUA.info based on pigprogress.net