U.S. pork exports, particularly offal, have lost competitiveness in China due to high tariffs—despite some being temporarily suspended. In 2024, the U.S. accounted for 27% of Chinese offal imports, but Chinese buyers are now increasingly turning to suppliers from Brazil, Chile, and the EU. U.S. exporters, in turn, are redirecting volumes to alternative, often lower-value, markets.
China remains the world's largest pork importer, though imports represent less than 5% of total domestic supply. The shift in trade routes opens new growth opportunities for Latin America and Europe, but U.S. exporters face falling values and tight margins.
Prices Rebound Despite Consumption Concerns
Despite economic uncertainty and falling pork consumption in some regions, global pork prices rebounded at the beginning of Q2. The rally is largely driven by tightening supply, stagnant sow herd growth, and persistent disease pressures—most notably African Swine Fever (ASF), Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), and Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome virus (PRRSv).
In Brazil, pork prices jumped 28% year-on-year, driven by strong demand from the Philippines, where imports surged 86% in Q1. In the EU, prices rose as Germany regained its FMD-free status, although outbreaks continue in Slovakia and Hungary.
Feed Costs Stable, With Regional Variations
Feed remains a key cost factor. While North America and Europe have seen easing feed prices, South America faces increases due to tight inventories and rising biofuel demand. Currency volatility—particularly the depreciation of the Brazilian real—adds additional cost pressure for producers.
Rabobank expects overall global feed costs to remain flat in the second half of 2025, supported by good harvests and solid stock levels.
Disease Continues to Limit Supply Growth
Animal health remains a major constraint on production. FMD re-emerged in Germany in early 2025 but trade has since resumed. ASF continues to affect parts of Asia and Europe, while PRRSv remains a concern across North America. Rabobank notes that improved biosecurity and innovations such as gene-edited PRRS-resistant pigs—already approved in the U.S.—could offer long-term solutions.
Regional Highlights:
- China: Pork production is forecast to grow 1–2% in 2025. However, tariffs on U.S. offal are likely to create supply shortages, driving up prices and encouraging smuggling via Vietnam and Hong Kong.
- Japan: Imports remain strong due to high domestic prices. Slaughter numbers are down due to heat stress and disease, but foodservice demand is sustaining consumption.
- Vietnam: ASF outbreaks and environmental restrictions on pig farming have pushed piglet prices up 30%. Pork imports rose 40% in early 2025, with Brazil as the leading supplier.
- Philippines: Pork prices increased 20% year-on-year. The country’s fragmented farm structure complicates disease control, and production is expected to decline again in 2025.
- North America: U.S. production remains flat as exporters lose market share. In Canada, increased slaughter and rising exports to Mexico and Japan support modest growth.
- Mexico: Hog prices reached record highs but have since corrected seasonally. U.S. pork imports are increasing, while Brazil is expanding its market presence.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid Volatility
While global pork production continues to face pressure from disease and trade uncertainties, Rabobank forecasts some relief thanks to stable feed costs and demand in emerging markets. However, inflation and evolving consumer behavior could dampen demand—particularly for premium cuts and foodservice products.
With trade patterns in flux and herd growth stagnating, Rabobank emphasizes the need for producers to stay agile to navigate both risks and opportunities in a volatile global market.
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